TIM'S RANT 12/02/2016
This is not a tip for the general public but more aimed at jockeys. And yes I've never ridden a race horse and trust me no horse should ever have to bear that load because that would just be cruel. But what I have done is attend school and from what I can recall it was in my first year in high school that I learnt a little thing called π x r. (π = 3.14 and r = radius)
Why am I talking about this you ask? Well let me explain. For years I would ask this question to trainers and jockeys, how much further do you have to run when you are 3-4 wide when you hit the turn? Maybe I didn't ask the right people or enough because each person I did ask could not tell me. Why I asked this question was because of the fact that when they start a 200m race in athletics it is from a substantial staggered start. As horses start in a straight line and finish on a straight line it was only common sense that if they were wide that they would have to run further then the inside horse. Now I'm not saying that these trainers and jockeys didn't know that but no one could tell me how many lengths extra they had to run. Now this annoyed the hell out of me. The more I asked without getting the answer the more I wanted to know. So I brought it on myself to find out this conundrum by actually getting the layout of each major track in Australia and through the simple equation of π x r I worked it out myself. The results were dumbfounding. If you raced 3-4 wide when you hit the bend and had to stay there the hole way round the bend you would have to run up to an extra 4 lengths than the horse that is on the rail. But it doesn't end there. If racing in longer races 1600m and above and stayed 3-4 wide the hole way it then blows out to 8 lengths or more, staggering isn't it?
So over the next many years of having this knowledge and watching thousands of races I began to see a pattern. If you were 3-4 wide the hole way you couldn't win. Yes there has been exceptions to the rule but I can count them on one hand. If their is better going out wide due to rain affected tracks then these lengths can be made up but on good to dead tracks it's been pretty obvious you are going to loose. Horses that have won being wide all the way were just considerably better horses than the rest of the field and I've ended up following these miracle horses. Look if your horse is wide on any part of the straights it has no affect to the distance but if you are still out there when you hit the bend your are in a world of hurt.
So the next time you consider dumping a horse because of being spanked by 3 or 4 lengths take into account on where this horse run as if it was wide it may have well won the race if it was in closer.
I hope this information can help you in the future to pick a winner and also hold the same distain I have for a jockey who persists in staying wide and basically give your horse no chance of winning.
As always good luck.
Tim @ puntersfriends.com
TIM'S RANT 16/02/2016 With this weekends group1 lighting fast approaching we see the return of some of the big guns of Australia sprint racing.
Chautauqua, Terravista, Japonisme and Delectation to name a few have all nominated for this weekend.
Even with all these group1 superstars racing it's another horse that I wish to talk about and it's what I believe will be on everyone's lips by the end of the autumn.
This horse is Exosphere. Exosphere you say!!! Damn right I say!!! With the word on the street this horse is set to do big big things this campaign and the money is doing the talking. Already favourite for this weekends Lighting and the future Newmarket Handicap with most betting agencies something has got big punters throwing cash at it like a Boxing Day sale. Just like one of my favourite lines "it's not me who can't keep secrets it's the prixs I tell" and the word has got out that champion jockey James McDonald has said "it's the best horse he's ever ridden". Trust me, if he's saying that then I'm jumping on the Exo train. Already at $2.25 in the all-in markets for the Lightning over the most proven and arguably the best sprinters in the world it must have shown Sydney's premier jockey and people in the know that this is one special horse.
Maybe to short to back or not proven to you yet but to leave out or dismiss would be at your own peril.
Tim @ puntersfriends.com
TIM'S RANT 22/12/2016
Let's talk about the Drongo's of Australian racing and you don't need to a rocket scientist to work it out.
Yes people you've guessed it, it's Vic Racing. This self-centered group of dimwits who have no consideration for the Australian punter. Without the punter there is no racing and they seem to not realise this.
Without consultation, well I hope at least, or what would make it worse is if they did and said stuff the rest of the country and we're going to run the 30 minute race intervals. Clashing with all other states in programming and even having the same start times as other city meetings. This is preposterous!
How can the punter realistically with any confidence have a bet on a race when they are run with very little time between races or worse simultaneously.
Yes they may have changed it back on the weekend to normal programming but to me it's the fact that they didn't care or think about the repercussions that it may cause to the wider racing industry.
But these fools have been doing stupid shit for years. Prime example is the Damien Oliver betting fiasco, Champion jockey without a doubt but for him to still be riding after betting on another horse in the race that he's riding in is beyond me.
Bet on your own horse that doesn't bother me, at least we know your trying to win but when you start betting on others in the race you can't tell me you are going to do your utmost to win
Look at what happened to dumb and dumber(Shinn and Robl) who dropped a small fortune betting on themselves but still copped a 2 year suspension. Oliver wins on the horse he's bet on while riding another in the race and gets to ride out the rest of the spring carnival making a mockery of Vic Racing integrity by doing so.
I would have loved to have seen what suspension Ray Murrihy had given him if he was in NSW.
Then there's the TV rights debacle that seems to raze it's ugly head every couple of years and it's always Vic Racing at the forefront of it. Of course they are trying to get the best deal for their state but to the detriment of all other punters in Australia until they sort it out, Yes Vic Racing or as I like to call them, joke Racing, it's the punters that keep this wonderful industry going not your stupid ideas or decisions.
Because without us the punter you would be nothing, the sooner you remember that the better.
Tim @ puntersfriends.com
TIM'S RANT 19/02/16
For those of you who would have read my article (Tim's Rant) concerning my distain for jockeys riding 3-4 wide and giving you virtually no chance of winning due to the extra distance you must travel. You would have also seen the part where I said if there was horses that did this and still won(miracle horses) that I would then follow. Today was such a day(mark it in your calendar people) and that horse was first starter SARASWATI. 3 wide on the speed facing the breeze this horse powered away from all challenges in the straight for a good first up win. 2 other horses of special mention would be first starter DIXIE CHICK that showed a blistering turn of foot to race away with the win when at the 200m looked like it may not run a place leaving her trainer gobsmacked by the performance. The other being the Kim Waugh trained HIS MAJESTY. Winning with ease and turning in a last 600m sectional time that the great Black Caviar would be proud of. May I also add it did this without once being shown the persuader.
Tim @ puntersfriends.com
Copyright © Punters Friends 2013 | All Rights Reserved