TIM'S Golden rules
If I myself would always follow these golden rules I'd definitely be a better punter but alas I do not.
These rules are in no particular order but each are as important as the other.
Don't back maidens!!! No matter how good the oil is just leave them alone. Most of my biggest failures have come from overzealous owners who want you to believe the dream they've been sold to help them believe they have the next Sepoy. Trust me I've believed the same dream when I've owned a horse.
Ratings!!! Rating races are a bit of a conundrum to me. I don't know exactly how they rate them but what I do know is that any race below a 70 rating is a leave alone. Of course the higher the rating the better the class. So anything below the 70 rating and form becomes to hard to judge. A good example is to have a look at your next rating 50 something race. What you'll notice is your favorite will be around the $4-$5 mark, basically saying anything can win that race. Now this is my personal opinion here but I rather back horses that have run well in higher rating races that are dropping back in grade rather than horses that have done well in lower grades going up. Unless they won convincingly in a lower grade or are working through the grades nicely. Other people I know won't bet in a race that is not worth $80,000 or more thus insuring their will be class in the field.
Never chase!!! This is something that I myself have trouble with. If you are down on your luck you will find it extremely hard to find that luck again on the race track. The punting gods will be merciless to you. They will run you a place when you've only backed it for a win or give you forth when you've backed it a place. Let's not forget about that 1 horse that you didn't have in your multiples or worse you just missed in a photo. That's the shit that happens when you chase your money just to make that pain hurt just that little bit more.
Wet tracks!!! Wet tracks don't back. That's it.
Emotion!!! Never let emotion get in the way of betting. If you let emotion take over you will always come off worse off. I'll give you an example, I used to hate a jockey and would never back him. Basically biting off my nose to spite my face. Looking at it realistically that jockey has kept on winning races while I would never back him so I'm worse off in the end as I'm sure I've backed horses in the races he's won. That's what emotion gets you.
Now these are not rules of such but just things I've found to be more successful when I follow.
1200m and below I like sprint horses fresh. First or second up seems to work best for me.
1300-1400m I prefer my horses to have at least 1 run under their belt.
1500-1800m 2 runs or more is best.
Most of my betting is around the 1000-1400m range and I prefer leaders with good barriers to horses that run on. To many variables if you have to get back and come home for me.
Don't be misguided by times that have been run by your horse. Some tracks are just quicker than others. Then there's the quick times run on the same track but the rail was out on 1 compared to the other(rail out will be slower). Plus there's a lot of difference between a good 3 to a good 5 so make sure you take that into account when you see a time on the same track with the same rail position because that difference from a good 3-5 is worth a half second or more.
Hopefully you can use these things I've learnt to help you in the future and as always good luck.
Tim @ puntersfriends.com
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